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10/11/2002

There are concerns about the Japanese banks being able to write off their bad debt.  None of these concerns is new but the specter of a bank failure was considered to be very close for a variety of reasons I won't go into now. Suffice it to say however that of the worlds 3 major stock market =
indices, US DOW, German DAX, Japan NIKKEI, the best performer of this year has been the US DOW. US investors have a tendency to focus on the US markets because that is what the US media does. It's a bad thing to do.

As the Japanese markets opened yesterday, while most here in the US, on the east coast anyway, were sleeping, they plunged 4% or over 325 points in the first 2 hours of trading.  Then, at about 10PM eastern time, the rumors started making the rounds of the trading floors around the world that the BOJ and the LDP were getting together to bail out the Japanese banks.

During the interim Japan rebounded to close down 99 points or just over 1% and the European markets started to trade. For the first half of the trading day in Europe the equity markets were all over the place going positive for an hour and then negative for an hour.  Then 9:30 AM east coast time hit and the US equity markets open in negative territory; dropping 75 points on the DOW immediately.  Those, of course, were orders left over from the previous day and once taken out, which took about 30 minutes, the drive up began.  At 10AM east coast time every major market in the world open at that time went positive and stayed there.  At that point the rumor about the BOJ bailing out the Japanese banks and German Central Bank bailing out Commerz were coupled with the fact that the 2 year US treasury yield was trading below the FED Funds rate; a clear sign the US Fed will be lowering rates.

So, at 10 AM east coast time yesterday the expectation on the part of traders all over the world was that, at least for the day, the specter of a money center somewhere in the world going under was given a reprieve.

Friday trading left the NIKKEI up 1% at the close, European markets, half way through their trading day, are up an average of 4% today after having closed up an average of 4.5% yesterday; and the futures in the US are up as well. This is more consistent with a relief rally than a cyclical bull.

What happens in Japan and Germany as well as their satellite 
economies as well as the US and the Americas affects all markets and all economies world wide.

Japan tries to boost confidence as Nikkei falls.

By Bayan Rahman in Tokyo Published: October 10 2002 15:56=20


The Japanese government was on Thursday scrambling to stop the stock market's slide after the Nikkei stock average fell below 8,200 and it emerged that foreign investors shed nearly $10bn of Japanese shares last month.
The stock market's decline is increasing unrealized losses by life insurance companies. Their bank shareholdings have taken a battering since Heizo Takenaka became head of the Financial Services Agency last week because of his commitment to make banks tougher on struggling debtors.

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